If certain conditions are not met, the Bosnian implementation force will have a difficult, if not impossible, chance of achieving the desired goals.

The beginning of these conditions are: 1) Cease fire in effect and a peace plan agreed to by all parties. 2). clear millitary mission and achievable tasks. 3) Sufficient forces to do the job. At this time it appears that all these conditions have been satisfied.

Condition #4: There must be a clear military chain of command that does not contain dual key provision. For over two years, the United Nations Military forces, ( with authority based on U.N. security council Resolutions) and NATO Military Forces (with authority from the North Atlantic Council)have been operating together in Bosnia. This operation has isolated one of the preeminent military principles, unity of command. For example, in order for the NATO commander to conduct an air strike, in accordance with the North Atlantic Council Mandates, he had to first get agreement from the U.N., who held the second key, hence the dual key.

Military operations without unity of command will not work. A second form of dual hey is one in which a civilian official is inserted into a position of authority in the military chain of command. If the civilian reports directly to the governing political body, (in this case, the North Atlantic Council), and/or has direct authority over the military commander, it is unlikely that the mission will Be successfully accomplished. Responsibility for the mission must be accompanied by complete authority to take necessary actions under the overall mandates of the governing political body. Civilian control of the military must reside in the overarching context, not at the point of execution. This issue has been discussed this past Brussels. It appears at the time that the issue has been resolved and a dual hey has been eliminated. Give condition #4 a "yes" vote.

Condition #5: The Theater Commander must Have Sufficient and Timely Funding Authority. First, what does Theater commander mean? The forces associated with the peace enforcement mission are not just in Bosnia. There're are supporting ground forces in Hungary, Croatia, and Italy; air forces fly out of Italy and Croatia; marine amphibious will be off shore in the Adriatic Sea; and naval forces of all types (submarines, mine sweepers, escorts, aircraft carriers,etc) will operate in the Adriatic. This then constitutes the Theater of Operation and must be under one commander. The commander is the U.S. Admiral Leighton Smith, who is also Commander-in-Chief Allied Forces South, headquartered in Naples, Italy. For this operation, the Dayton Peace Plan refers to the Theater Commander as Commander forces, Com I-For. Now, back to the funding issue. Com I-For has to "open" the Theater. That is, roads, bridges, seaports, and air ports must be repaired or built from scratch; land and facilities must be leased; local personnel must be hired; construction materials must be purchased; and utilities must be brought up to standard. Remember, this is a country whose economy has been reduced to a subsistence level, the infrastructure is heavily damaged and deteriorated and there is no accepted monetary system. Com I-For must jump start the country in order to be prepared for the main force (600,000 NATO troops) deployment. This is the first serious problem in the review of conditions for success. Jump starting a country requires a great deal of money and time. However, the North Atlantic Council has not been forthcoming with liberal fiscal solutions. Secondly, the time table laid out in the Dayton Agreement is a very fast track. Main body forces will begin deploying within days after the signing in Paris next week. The Theater is not ready.

Condition #6: Com I-For need sufficient time to initiate the civil-military campaign plan. What is this campaign and why is it essential? There will continue to be considerable misinformation flowing from the warring factions and Bosnia. NATO must be proactive in dealing with this issue. Part of the solution is a psychological operative using radio, TV, and written media to explain NATO's role, what NATO expects from the populace, what the goals are etc. This effort is designed to prepare the way for main body forces. Beyond the information campaign is plan to have joint military and civilian commissions at every military and political level. This will provide and in-place organization to check compliance and to deal with controversial issues. Furthermore, these grassroots country-wide associations will provide the basis for a human intelligence network. Obviously, to be mostly effective, this multi-faceted effort needs to be in place and operating well in advance (ideally weeks) prior to main force deployments. This has not happened and main forces are expected to be moving soon after the signing in Paris next week. This condition for success, gets a C-. minus.

Marvin Covault
Lt. General U.S Army(ret.)
CNN Military Analyst