| From: | Jesse McClusky |
| Date: | 18 Sep 2000 at 06:41:04 |
| Subject: | Re: AMIOPEN: OT: Console Market (was: Sega) |
> From: "Patrick Roberts" <artix@pacbell.net>
>
> Actually, Nintendo is behind Sega in the console market and #1 in
> the handheld market. (Maybe Dolphin will change this...if it ever
> comes out)
(: For the moment. This has only been a recent development however.
The announcement of the Game Cube (for better or worse) hasn't
had time to show a market effect. Of course, the real market effect
(Nintendo vs Sega) won't come for another year or so when the
Game Cube actually hits the market. At that point, Sega had better
have an announcement ready or they're going to be in a world of
hurt, ISP service or not.
> The PSX-2 will take a big chunk out of the DC market, but don't forget
> that the DC will have been out for over a year, and the price
> will probably drop, making the difference between the $399 PSX2 and
> potentially $150 DC something for consumers to consider.
Actually, the price currently being bandied about for the PSx2
is $299 for the US. Plus, there's another *huge* drawing factor
in favor of the PSx2: It's also a DVD player. And if that weren't
enough, it supports all current PSx games as well, giving it an
instant installed software base of over 1200 games. And the
graphics *are* noticeably better. I've seen them demoed
side-by-side.
On the other hand, the DC has been Sega's biggest seller since
its original system...
> I know developers prefer the DC to the PSX2.
Only those currently in the PC market, because the transition
is easier. Those currently in the console market almost unanimously
dislike it.
> The DC's life is at least half over. Sega mentioned a while ago
> that they plan to release a DC-2 to compete against the PSX2, and
> that the DC isn't designed to compete against it. It would be
> good if both companies released in the middle of each other's
> console's lives. It would reduce competition and only help the
> console market. I'd buy a new box every 18 months regardless of
> maker if it were a step forward.
The problem has been that console cycles are 6-8 years, and
it's hard for the lower-end consoles to stay in business through
the times when the Big Boys release unless they have a bit of
cash stored up. The way they do this is by releasing about a
year or so before the Big Boys start releasing. If they didn't
do it that way, they'd go under.
> The X-Box is so far away that it isn't worth comparing it to
> systems that are out now. Maybe the Dolphin, but both Sega and
> Sony have said that they will be at least one more generation
> ahead when the X-Box launches.
Um, am I the only one who heard Bill say the X-Box would launch
next spring? That's only about 6 months away...
> The other thing that
> remains to be seen is if M$ can pull it off. All the specs I've
> read about the X-Box so far make me think they don't understand the
> console market at all.
*shrug* They don't understand the PC market either, but
that hasn't stopped their marketing engine.
> > Their problem is, unlike Nintendo, they don't have anything to fall
> > back on except making games. 3DO managed the transition, but
> > almost didn't and lost most of their staff several times during the
> > process.
>
> What else does Nintendo have to fall back on if they dropped out
> of the hardware market?
A very large portion of Nintendo's profits come from Pokemon -
games, trading/playing cards, stuffed animals and action figures,
stickers, t-shirts, movies (in the theatre), cartoons (in prime time),
etc. Additionally, they are essentially unchallenged in the hand-held
game market, which (for them) is currently thriving. The three top-
selling games last year were three different colors of Pokemon for
the GameBoy. They *each* outsold every other game on the market.
On top of this, Nintendo's President has announced that they intend
to make the Pokemon bigger than Mickey Mouse, and have started
in on plans to build a theme park similar to Disneyland.
Add to this that their console market share is shrinking faster than
ever, and my guess (just an estimate by moi) is that their N64-related
sales will total less than 30% of their profits this year, and about the
same next year only if they manage to release the Game Cube next
year.
Jesse
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