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- From: TELECOM Moderator <telecom@delta.eecs.nwu.edu>
- Message-Id: <9402181916.AA27750@delta.eecs.nwu.edu>
- To: telecom@delta.eecs.nwu.edu
- Subject: Multimedia Keynote Speech by AT&T Executive
-
- The following special report is being sent to our readers reprinted
- courtesy of HOTT -- Hot Off The Tree. Please forward responses in
- the usual way for inclusion in the Digest in a few days. My thanks
- to David Lewis for passing it along.
-
-
- PAT
-
- From: callewis@netcom.com (David Scott Lewis)
- Subject: Multimedia Keynote Speech by AT&T Executive
- Message-Id: <callewisCLDKtq.FJx@netcom.com>
- Organization: NETCOM On-line Communication Services (408 241-9760 guest)
- Date: Thu, 17 Feb 1994 15:39:25 GMT
-
- HOTT -- Hot Off The Tree electronic serial
- Issue 94.01.26 (pre-relaunch)
-
- Note: The text that follows was transmitted to our subscriber list about
- two weeks ago. It has generated a lot of interest; hence, I've chosen to
- post it to the two key USENET groups pertaining to the subject matter:
- comp.multimedia and comp.dcom.telecom. **Revised** subscription informa-
- tion follows the speech.
-
- WINTER CONSUMER ELECTRONICS SHOW 1994 KEYNOTE SPEECH
-
- Thursday, 6 January 1994
-
- Speaker: Robert Kavner, Executive Vice President and
- Chief Executive Officer for Multimedia Products and Services,
- AT&T
-
-
- Thank you, Gary (Gary J. Shapiro, Group Vice President, Electronic
- Industries Association/Consumer Electronics Group). I'm honored to be
- here.
-
- Being given the opportunity to be the keynote speaker at the Winter CES
- is truly humbling.
-
- I've thought long and hard about what would be an appropriate topic for
- today.
-
- And as I considered alternatives, I kept coming back to wanting to talk
- about intelligence -- intelligence that is being put into networks and
- intelligence that is being put into consumer electronics.
-
- The marriage of that intelligence will give new meaning to freedom,
- personal choice and individuality.
-
- Because the microprocessor and software is proliferating from $25
- devices to million dollar network switches, and from a tool at the
- office to appliances in our kitchen, to learning in our den and to
- entertainment in our living room.
-
- What I'd like to do with the brief time we have together, is to describe
- the reality of the new network world, what AT&T is doing to show
- leadership in helping to bring order to this revolution, and to point out
- threats to the future health of our industry.
-
- Some refer to the marriage of intelligence in networks and the
- intelligence in devices as the interactive multimedia revolution.
-
- I ask your permission to use that expression, even though it is over used
- and little-understood.
-
- There are two opposing business models for interactive multimedia. One
- model -- a customer-focused model to which AT&T subscribes -- sees an
- open access, competitive marketplace that promotes people connecting with
- people.
-
- A prototype for thinking about this "open access" model is the enormous
- success generated by today's communications networks. When the new
- interactive networks enable anybody to reach any content and anyone else,
- anywhere in the world, it will stimulate a bigger artistic, scientific,
- and economic revolution for the 21st century than the industrial
- revolution did for the 20th century.
-
- But there is another business model.
-
- We call it the "gatekeeping" model: a closed access, non-competitive
- marketplace that looks an awful lot like the model prevailing today in
- the cable industry.
-
- A good way to understand the ramifications of the gatekeeping model is to
- talk to TV producers, as I have, who've tried for the past 20 years to
- get their ideas and programs through the cable industry's gate. It's
- roughly akin to picnicking with a tiger. You might enjoy the meal, but
- the tiger always eats last.
-
- We believe today's cable industry gatekeeping model would stifle
- commercial and creative potential *if* it were recreated in the new
- interactive multimedia world. We believe it's a threat to the very
- survival of the consumer electronics industry. And that's why I'm
- bringing it up today.
-
- The questions I will try to illuminate are two: First, will the company
- that owns the local cable or local telephone distribution have the right
- to be the gatekeeper in deciding what interactive content will be made
- available into American homes?
-
- And second, will the gatekeeper use the rental set-top box model as a way
- to dictate what type of intelligent terminals and software the consumer
- must use to access interactive content -- and push the consumer
- electronics industry into making low margin monitors and accessory
- devices?
-
- Those are very live and unanswered questions. The people in this room
- have a great deal of ability to influence the answers.
-
- I'm going to come back to these questions because I would like you to
- think about the answers and the *urgency* for us to act on them.
- Everywhere we turn these days we hear about convergence. We began to
- plan for the convergence of computers and communications several years
- ago. For example, AT&T has a large consumer electronics business, and
- lately, we're finding more and more need to walk across the hall to talk
- with those who run our network.
-
- Why is that? Because a lot of our consumer electronics are becoming
- increasingly intelligent terminals on the network. The telephone is not
- just a consumer electronics device. It is a gateway to the network; and
- we and others will be improving the intelligence of these terminals to
- include the functionality of PCs, game machines, faxes, cameras, TV
- monitors, and more.
-
- (PAUSE HERE)
-
- The power of networking reaches every home and office. The world of
- interactive multimedia will reveal networking in its most liberating and
- fertile new persona -- finding vast potential latent in older concepts
- like "neighborhood" and "meeting" and "relationships" and "information"
- and "news."
-
- The new networked electronics devices are global; they're democratic;
- they're the central agent of change in our changing sense of community --
- offering tremendous potential to bring people together to build bridges
- and break down barriers. In a moment, I'll give examples of how our
- sense of community could be enhanced.
-
- First, let's take a look at the communications side of the business.
-
- The current communications industry in the United States looks like this:
- a ubiquitous telephone service supporting a wide variety of end devices.
-
- It enables anyone to reach anyone else, anywhere in the world -- wired or
- wireless.
-
- Though its infrastructure is complex, access is simple -- a touch-tone
- pad. And access is open.
-
- Running parallel is the entertainment side, whose distribution into the
- home is the purview of the cable companies -- today bolted to end users.
- Consumer access to entertainment content is rigidly orchestrated. To
- get content onto cables, content owners must cut a deal with the powerful
- tigers of the cable industry.
-
- The consumers' access terminal is the set-top box, which they must rent
- from the cable company. Consumers cannot buy the box from the consumer
- electronics distributors.
-
- In the cable companies' current business model, they are the only retail
- distributor to the consumer. This enables the cable company to maximize
- profits by taking margins from content, from distribution of that
- content, and from renting the set-top box.
-
- (PAUSE HERE)
-
- A fairly recent and promising development is the new interactive
- narrowband services through the public switched network. These
- information, game, and "chat" services are gaining subscribers daily. We
- believe they're the Neanderthal men of the interactive multimedia world,
- because you will soon see more sophisticated and user-friendly versions
- of these services. They will be designed to take advantage of the higher
- digital bandwidths that are becoming available.
-
- (PAUSE HERE)
-
- As everyone knows, some local exchange carriers have been forming
- strategic alliances with cable companies. They have been very vocal
- about big plans to deploy interactive networks -- to make cable systems
- two-way and local phone systems broadband. We encourage them to avoid
- the "gatekeeping" model and to adopt the open access, competitive
- marketplace model.
-
- Some of these mergers and alliances have generated great optimism and
- public attention. Since then, many articles have been written about this
- new world -- asking how much is hype, and how much is reality. I thought
- it would be useful for us to have some facts. Because there is reality
- in the opportunity and reality in the threat.
-
- Which makes the business model question an extremely important one. AT&T
- knows the buildout is real because, as a systems integrator and
- technology provider, we're a leading supplier and moving force in that
- buildout -- in our own networks as well as those belonging to the cable
- and local telephone companies.
-
- As we continue our public debate on the business model issue, AT&T is
- vigorously helping network providers -- of all kinds -- to plan and build
- networks that can begin to capture the opportunities. A year from now,
- we'll see them appearing in a number of communities across the United
- States.
-
- Let's start with AT&T's network, with more than two billion circuit miles
- of digital transmission today -- more than 90% on fiber optics with
- multiple-gigabit capacities. Our network's brains are distributed in
- more than 130 digital switches, as well as hundreds of computers that
- carry signaling traffic, store data bases, and manage a growing variety
- of customized business and residential services.
-
- Another vivid example is what Pacific Telephone announced with AT&T in
- November: a $16 billion capital investment to upgrade five million
- subscribers to broadband capabilities by the end of the decade. The
- buildout begins this year in four high-density regions of California. We
- know that other telephone companies are actively planning similar
- buildouts.
-
- There's no doubt that, by the end of the decade, we'll have networks in
- many cities capable of going broadband, two-way video, in and out of
- millions of homes.
-
- As the broadband systems go in, existing infrastructures are getting a
- new lease on life through Integrated Services Digital Network, or ISDN.
- Since 1988, AT&T has deployed wideband ISDN -- which can deliver high-
- quality, color images simultaneously with voice and data -- at more than
- 300 locations in America, and in a dozen countries abroad. AT&T is a
- major supplier of ISDN to the local exchange carriers.
-
- The seven Regional Bell Operating Companies and the largest independent
- telephone companies have filed more than 200 ISDN tariffs in 46 states,
- the majority already in effect. By the end of this year there will be 66
- million ISDN-capable local access lines -- which could support
- simultaneous voice, data, and image services. In a little more than
- three years, 70% of all access lines in this country will be ISDN-
- capable.
-
- These new digital capabilities are affecting businesses in a big way --
- right now. The majority of medium- and large-size businesses in this
- country today have access to high capacity networks that carry video --
- and that's two-way video! Let me repeat that, because it's not well
- known. Businesses can go two-way video today. And, interactive, two-way
- entertainment, information, and education services for business will be
- coming fast in the next several years.
-
- Now let me talk about networking for consumers. It's going to be a big
- addressable market in this decade. Fiber deployment, ISDN deployment,
- some of the initiatives I just mentioned all point to one reality: In a
- short time we will see a vast improvement in local access capability.
- Look at the investments some cable companies and local access companies
- are putting in: Within five years, Bell Atlantic anticipates delivering
- video services to the top twenty markets in the U.S. U.S. West in
- conjunction with Time-Warner recently announced a $5 billion plan to
- upgrade their cable network.
-
- The race towards interactive multimedia into the home has begun in a big
- way. Not every home in America will be able to carry two-way video by
- the end of the decade. But there's no doubt that in high-population
- areas we're going to see rapid deployment of two-way video networks.
-
- What is the DNA driving the interactive multimedia evolution? You can
- say it really began 26 years ago with another Neanderthal man of
- interactive multimedia, 800 toll-free service. You may not know this,
- but AT&T's 800-number business represents 40% of total calls made last
- year -- that's 12 billion 800 calls.
-
- The success of 800 toll-free service shows that Americans have learned to
- use the network for more than voice conversation. It shows that
- Americans have learned to use the network for transactions -- that's why
- it is a precursor for interactive multimedia.
-
- We gave consumers and content providers easy access to the network; they
- used it creatively and passionately, with great entrepreneurial spirit.
- And faster than we ever expected, the technology changed the way humans
- behaved and interacted.
-
- The growth of on-line hosting services is another example of DNA. There
- are more than 50 on-line services available today, with seven million
- subscribers -- not including the fast-growing Internet, which is
- subsidized by the government. And the highest growth segment is
- consumers!
-
- Over four million consumers use on-line network services from their home:
- gaming networks, chatlines, discussion groups, marketing workshops,
- libraries, graphics, shopping and travel services, a panoply of
- interactivity. They're attracting entrepreneurs, artists, engineers, and
- visionaries who draw inspiration from this new form of interaction.
-
- They're using it to enhance their knowledge and to satisfy their desire
- for relationships. And this is happening even though these services are
- somewhat crude today with limited interactive capabilities. Yet it's an
- open access model -- that's why they're growing.
-
- You can get content variety by choosing, and you don't have to rent the
- modem or PC. It is important for us to understand why these services are
- growing in popularity: They give people what they want without
- interference. As we look ahead to interactive multimedia, we must ask
- ourselves: Isn't easy access to content what we really want? And if
- that's true, how can we make it happen?
-
- Who will bring the thousands of formats and programs and relationship-
- enhancers into millions of consumer's homes? Who will convert this
- content from analog to digital, make it secure, and deliver it rapidly
- upon request?
-
- And who will perform the back-office work -- recording the transactions,
- reporting them, billing for them -- the myriad detail needed to support
- such complexity? It's what we at AT&T call "the missing industry" --
- converting content into digital form and distributing it to customers
- through networks.
-
- It is an attractive market opportunity because this missing industry will
- evolve into a "hosting industry" that creates a global market for full-
- motion video, interactive multimedia services. Let me give you a
- primitive yet exciting example of hosting that's available today.
-
- The only dedicated gaming network in today's narrowband world is
- ImagiNation Network, in which we are a part-owner -- and, more
- importantly, with whom we are working to develop new services. It has
- advanced graphics and lots of interactive flexibility. As people use
- this communications-intensive service, they're seeing its potential and
- adapting it to their life-styles.
-
- We are often asked why are we working with this small, online network?
- We are working with ImagiNation Network to find ways that people can use
- the network to strengthen their sense of community. And games are a big
- application area.
-
- As networks grow more capable and as people use them in different ways,
- another interesting thing happens: the products and devices attached to
- them also evolve.
-
- A new generation of intelligent, highly-functional terminals -- is being
- shaped, pushing our creative energies to give the consumer more than a
- telephone or a modem to access the network. To give you a taste of
- what's in store, I'll take a peek at one service we will announce in the
- next hour, and three new multimedia network products we have at the show.
-
- This morning we're announcing a cornerstone of AT&T's evolving multimedia
- family. It's called AT&T PersonaLink Services. And it uses General
- Magic's breakthrough technology Telescript to create "intelligent
- assistants" (Editor's note: Usually referred to as "Intelligent Agents".)
- that allow individual customers to personalize the network.
-
- PersonaLink combines our services and those from third parties with
- products from companies such as Sony, Motorola, Apple, Matsushita,
- Phillips, and EO to make possible these new communications opportunities.
- The press conference announcing PersonaLink will start soon after I'm
- done here. (Editor's note: The General Magic press release and related
- articles in Fortune and Newsweek will be highlighted as the lead feature
- in the first issue of the reinvented HOTT electronic serial.)
-
- AT&T is also showing three important new multimedia products in our
- booth. The first is a breakthrough technology, VoiceSpan. "AT&T
- VoiceSpan" is a standard-setting brand you'll be seeing in a variety of
- new business and communications applications from both AT&T and other
- companies. With VoiceSpan we can use a regular analog telephone line and
- talk and fax to each other simultaneously. With VoiceSpan we can talk to
- each other and manipulate the data on each other's computer screens
- without needing another connection. With VoiceSpan kids can play an
- interactive game on the network and talk to each other at the same time!
- This technological achievement is part of the DNA driving the interactive
- multimedia revolution.
-
- A natural fit with VoiceSpan is our Edge-16 communications device. It's
- a specialized modem that turns a home videogame into a terminal on the
- network. With Edge-16, players in separate parts of the world can play a
- video game with each other. Today we think of telephones, PCs, and fax
- machines as networked -- now, with Edge-16, game machines are connected
- home to home and player to player. On the show floor, I'm playing an
- interactive game over the public switched network using an Edge-16 with
- the President of Sega (of America), Tom Kalinske.
-
- Another piece of the DNA is our EO personal communicators. EO is a
- portable, hand-held multimedia "appliance" that is really a remote
- controller to the network, accessing a variety of information and
- transaction services, games and messages. You can write on its screen
- with an electronic pen, and send handwritten notes through the network.
- EO sends and receives faxes and e-mail. You can even use it to make a
- phone call. EO is another example of how the telephone is putting the
- computer into service as its accessory, not the other way around.
-
- To create the finest interactive networking applications, we must be
- attuned to the needs of the consumer. You may not know that we are
- providing the underlying technology, products and systems integration for
- a ground breaking test of interactive services that will begin tying into
- thousands of households on Viacom's cable system in Castro Valley,
- California.
-
- The benefits of these new networks are found in the ability of kids in
- different cities to call each other on a rainy day and play a game
- together over the network using VoiceSpan technology.
-
- They don't just play the game -- they visit -- they find what is
- emotionally nourishing and build their relationship. The game just
- facilitates their interaction.
-
- It's the ability for me to call my daughter who lives in San Francisco
- and spend an hour with her shopping in the network. We don't just shop;
- we talk -- we give opinions. When you walk in the mall you pay as much
- attention to each other as you do the stores -- the social experience
- makes it rich. And so you'd have that in the network, with simultaneous
- voice and video, and all the merchandising services, in color, with full-
- motion video, and excellent sound quality.
-
- It's the ability of amateur filmmakers to hire an instructor who gives
- lessons, allowing the group to ask questions and see graphic examples of
- subject matter -- a dynamic learning experience on the network.
-
- Or maybe it's language lessons, or a stock market group, or gardeners, or
- people who love to gossip -- all highly communications intensive. That's
- AT&T's vision. New relationships -- A new sense of community -- A social
- experience not just a technology experience. As you see, the potential
- of interactive networks is not found in 500 pre-programmed channels. The
- beauty is that consumers have the freedom to choose any subject or
- service from the intelligent terminal in their homes.
-
- And instantly the terminal understands what they want, finds that content
- wherever it is, and delivers it to their homes, or to their cars, or to a
- train or a mall -- wherever they want it delivered. And they can do that
- with their own fingers or, ideally, with their own voice.
-
- The companies that create a rich, innovative and open marketplace for
- content providers and end customers comprise what we call "the missing
- industry", AT&T's concept of hosting. The consumer's choice of a host is
- important, because it creates a bonded relationship. Consumers will
- subscribe to a particular host because they feel it gives them the
- easiest access to the people and applications they want, and provides
- excellent service and convenience at an affordable price. The point is:
- It's a competitive, intelligent hosting environment, with the consumer in
- control.
-
- Now let me go back to the other business model: the "gatekeeping" model.
- Under this model, the gatekeeper is the consumer's host -- end of story.
- And the user interface that goes into the consumer's home will belong to
- the gatekeeper -- end of story. Under the gatekeeping model,
- effectively, there isn't any hosting industry. When they put their
- multimedia servers on the head-end of the local distribution, it cuts out
- competitive servers from delivering content retail.
-
- This is why I posed my first question: Will the company that owns the
- wires into homes have the right to be the sole gatekeeper in deciding
- what interactive content will be made available to those homes? AT&T
- believes there's a better way, and we want you to think about it. *We*
- want to treat content providers as customers -- we'll host content in a
- non-discriminatory way.
-
- There's another issue that strikes to the heart of the consumer
- electronics industry, the other question I asked before: Will vertically
- integrated gatekeepers have the right to dictate the kind of intelligent
- terminal the consumer will use to access interactive content -- the
- rental "set-top box" issue.
-
- Designing the "set-top box" or "intelligent terminal" is a big
- opportunity for all of us here to build exciting future generations of
- TVs, VCRs, telephones, game machines, faxes, PCs, and personal
- communicators each of which has intelligence and memory, is
- reprogrammable and software-driven, and that connects to a network.
-
- We believe that cable and local telephone companies should have the
- authority to define the interface protocols for their networks -- for
- security, encryption, compressions, and authentication. But they should
- stop there.
-
- I started this talk discussing intelligence, both in networks and in
- networked consumer devices. It is very important that those of us who
- agree on open competitive principles stay focused in 1994 on what we do
- best: assuring that our customers have more innovation, more choice, more
- value from us. I can tell you that we at AT&T are committed to that.
-
- In 1994 I ask you to put energy into making sure that all of us are full
- participants in the revolution of interactive multimedia.
-
- I thank you and invite you to join me in the unveiling of our new
- PersonaLink Service -- an important step toward open hosting.
-
-
- **REVISED** SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION
-
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- FREE ELECTRONIC MAGAZINE ON NEW GENERATION COMPUTING & COMMUNICATIONS
-
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- computer and communications technologies from over 100 trade magazines
- and research journals; key U.S. & international daily newspapers, news
- weeklies, and business magazines; and, over 100 Internet mailing lists &
- USENET groups. Each issue (10/year) includes listings of forthcoming &
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-
- HOTT -- Hot Off The Tree -- is a FREE monthly (10/year) electronic
- magazine featuring the latest advances in computer, communications, and
- electronics technologies. Each issue provides article summaries on
- new & emerging technologies, including VR (virtual reality), neural
- networks, PDAs (personal digital assistants), GUIs (graphical user
- interfaces), intelligent agents, ubiquitous computing, genetic &
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-
- Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Washington Post,
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-
- Time, Newsweek, U.S. News & World Report ...
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-
- over 100 Internet mailing lists & USENET discussion groups ...
-
- plus ...
-
- * listings of forthcoming & recently published technical books;
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- * listings of forthcoming trade shows & technical conferences; and,
-
- * company advertorials, including CEO perspectives, tips & techniques,
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-
- BONUS:
-
- Exclusive interviews with technology pioneers ... the first issues
- feature interviews with Mark Weiser (head of Xerox PARC's Computer
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- on the information society, and MCC CEO (and former DARPA director)
- Craig Fields on the future of computing
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-
- FIRST ISSUE
-
- The first issue of the reinvented HOTT e-magazine is scheduled for
- transmission in late February/early March.
-
-
- PLANNED FEATURES
-
- There are numerous features that I plan to add over the next year.
- First, I want to expand trade magazine coverage to over 200 sources,
- including at least 30 British trade publications. Also, I want to
- provide summaries of U.S. and U.K. national news programs, i.e., ABC,
- CBS, NBC, and BBC. I'd like to transmit selected full-text features
- from The Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, The (London) Financial
- Times, and a Japanese English-language daily (plus article summaries
- from a few other Japanese English-language dailies; there are a half-
- dozen English-language dailies published in Japan). Eventually, I'd
- like to add The New York Times (if I can negotiate a reasonable rate),
- The San Jose Mercury News, and The Boston Globe. And maybe even
- Newsbytes and the Japanese English-language equivalent to Newsbytes.
- I'm currently negotiating with The Los Angeles Times Syndicate for
- Michael Schrage's "Innovation" column (Michael is willing to comp HOTT
- on an experimental basis) and I'd like to add a few other syndicated
- columns. And I have several other surprises!
-
-
- UPDATE -- 7 February 1994
-
- In the last six weeks HOTT has grown from 2,000 to nearly 30,000
- individual subscribers (28,856 as of 3 February); this already makes
- HOTT the largest circulation electronic serial on the Internet. And
- this figure does NOT include distribution points in the U.S., such as
- CMU's Computer Science Department, NeXT Computer, an Air Force BBS at
- the Pentagon, or the Arizona Macintosh Users Group (AMUG). An
- additional 15,000 readers are being reached through distribution points
- in over a dozen countries, including: Canada, the U.K., France, Germany,
- the Netherlands, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Russia, Estonia, Israel,
- South Africa, Zambia, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia,
- Thailand, and the equivalent of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in
- the People's Republic of China -- and more distribution points, each
- representing an average of 500 readers, are being added each week. And
- as part of our publicity campaign, we're mailing (by snail mail, fax, and
- e-mail) this announcement to over 500 media contacts in the U.S.; this
- will be followed in late 2Q 94 with a mailing to several hundred media
- contacts in Europe.
-
- Our goal is to make HOTT the first mass distribution AND truly global
- periodical on the Information Superhighway. Help us to achieve our
- goal by subscribing ... and by informing others of our offering.
- Thank you very much.
-
- Bye!
-
- David Scott Lewis, Editor-in-Chief, HOTT electronic magazine;
- President, Cellsys, Inc. (a wireless communications company); &
- IEEE editor as noted by my signature file
-
- Daytime VOX: +1 818 786 0420 or +1 818 786 8585
- Fax: +1 818 994 5026
- E-Mail: d.s.lewis@ieee.org
- --
- ***********************************************************************
- * David Scott Lewis *
- * Editor-in-Chief and Book & Video Review Editor *
- * IEEE Engineering Management Review *
- * (the world's largest circulation "high tech" management journal) *
- * Internet address: d.s.lewis@ieee.org Tel: +1 714 662 7037 *
- * USPS mailing address: POB 18438 / IRVINE CA 92713-8438 USA *
- ***********************************************************************
-
-