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<text id=93TT1162>
<title>
Mar. 15, 1993: No Surprise, No Joy:The Recovery Slows
</title>
<history>
TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1993
Mar. 15, 1993 In the Name of God
</history>
<article>
<source>Time Magazine</source>
<hdr>
THE WEEK, Page 19
BUSINESS
No Surprise, No Joy: The Recovery Slows
</hdr>
<body>
<p>It hasn't yet helped the poor much either, as food-stamp figures
prove
</p>
<p> It had to happen: the U.S. economy's 4.8% growth rate in last
year's fourth quarter was too fast to last. Still, though a
spate of reports showing a marked early-1993 slowdown was no
surprise, it was no cause for joy either. January numbers
showing the sharpest plunge in new-home sales in 11 years might
be shrugged off, since winter housing figures are notoriously
unreliable. Slow February sales by major retail chains are a
pattern worsened this year by storms. Drops in January factory
orders, the late-February selling pace of new cars and an
increase in first-time claims for unemployment insurance were
not so easily dismissed. One bit of consolation: the
unemployment rate dropped a tenth of a percentage point in
February, to 7.0%. The bad news is that 90% of the employment
gain was made up of workers settling for part-time jobs.
</p>
<p> Worse, the recovery has not yet brought much help to the
poor--quite the contrary. The number of people qualifying for
food stamps has fallen sharply after previous recessions ended.
But it has jumped 40% in the past three years; in December,
after 21 months of recovery and six months of rapidly rising
production, food-stamp qualifiers reached an all- time high of
26.6 million, or 10.4% of the total population. Economists
generally still expect output growth of about 3% this year, up
from 2.1% in 1992. They had better be right.
</p>
</body>
</article>
</text>