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TIME - Man of the Year
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1992-08-28
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BUSINESS, Page 49Business NotesSTATISTICSOff-Balance Trade Balance
Is the oft bemoaned American trade deficit, projected for
1991 at about $100 billion, the result of an accounting error?
After studying 1987 imports and exports, a panel of economists
assembled by the National Academy of Sciences announced last
week that the U.S. trade deficit that year was only $64 billion
-- 57% below the officially reported figure of $148 billion.
According to the NAS study, the government's old-fashioned
accounting methods failed to keep tabs on such sophisticated
multinational activity as "intracompany" sales, exports to a
corporation's own foreign affiliates. These exports, which
account for more than a quarter of all U.S. trade activity,
simply fell through the cracks. On the other side of the ledger,
however, the government's accountants were diligent indeed in
totting up tariff-producing imports. "In terms of international
competitiveness," says economist Robert Baldwin, chairman of the
panel, the study suggests that "we are not doing as badly as the
trade figures indicate." So the good news is that Americans are
more competitive than they thought. The bad news is that they
can't always count.