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- ISRAEL, Page 49How Bush and Clinton Play The Israel Card
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- George Bush was never going to be a shoo-in with American
- Jews this year. In part because they traditionally vote
- Democratic, the President won less than a third of the ballots
- cast by Jewish voters in 1988, and he has been hard pressed to
- boost his standing much, even in the afterglow of the gulf war.
- In recent polls, only 20% of Jewish voters say they will vote
- for the incumbent. "It's what we call," admitted a senior adviser
- to the Bush campaign, "total alienation."
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- Many American Jews disapprove of Bush's strong-arm tactics
- toward Jerusalem, especially his demand that Israel freeze
- settlements in the occupied territories before it can obtain $10
- billion in loan guarantees to resettle Soviet Jews. Bush is not
- about to back down -- unless Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin at
- least partly complies with the freeze. Even if that happens,
- Jewish voters are hardly likely to transfer their loyalties to
- Bush in return.
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- Democratic candidate Bill Clinton, however, opposes Bush's
- policy of linkage. By picking Senator Al Gore as his running
- mate, Clinton has allied himself with one of Israel's staunchest
- backers on Capitol Hill. Clinton hasn't explained how he would
- solve the settlements issue or what he would do differently on
- the peace front. Instead, he has been content to make the
- standard pledge to give Israel what it wants to boost his lead
- over Bush with this group of Democratic stalwarts and worry
- about the peace process later.
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- Bush, however, has his eye on a different prize. Tangible
- progress in the Middle East negotiations before November, his
- advisers believe, would heighten his standing with all voters.
- A breakthrough would not only benefit Bush and spotlight his
- diplomatic finesse at a crucial time; it might also help voters
- recall the foreign-policy expertise that is, so far, the heart
- of his claim on a second term. Besides, Bush has few other aces
- to play. As one campaign official puts it, "We may not get those
- Jewish voters back, but we can neutralize them."
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