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TIME - Man of the Year
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1993-04-08
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THE WEEK, Page 18NATIONThe First Debate Leaves Clinton in Front
With two more to go, Bush's task looks all the more daunting
The techniques have been innovative, to be sure: the
Clinton- Gore bus tours, the burgeoning role of TV talk shows
and on Sunday the first three-candidate debate. The themes have
been tested and refined so that for both Bill Clinton and George
Bush they are repeatedly expressed in single words: change vs.
trust. Yet the campaign's opening phase, the seven weeks from
the end of the conventions to the eve of the debates, was mostly
motion, without progress. In seven polls released shortly before
the debate, Clinton's lead continued in double digits,
averaging 12 points; President Bush's support averaged only 35%.
Ross Perot was at 10%, though his sharp and engaging debate
performance may improve his standing. So far, his witty barbs
may have damaged Bush's candidacy more than they helped his own.
The lack of movement mainly mirrors the stubborn failure of
the economy to show any forward motion. Voters have been too
worried about their jobs and incomes to be distracted by any
doubts about Clinton's character. Said a Bush official: "We
didn't realize how much the whole campaign would be driven by
the economy and how resistant the voters would be to our
attempts to change the subject." He added, "We're going to keep
attacking, but that's mainly because we don't know what else to
do."
The days before the debate saw some of the most vicious
attacks yet, as Bush questioned Clinton's patriotism while
piously denying that he was doing so. The President wondered
aloud why Clinton, who was then attending Oxford as a Rhodes
scholar, went to Moscow in 1970 and whom he saw there. Clinton
says he visited, for all of a week, "mostly as a tourist." The
assault quickly backfired, and Bush stopped mentioning Moscow.
On Sunday night, though, he persisted in attacking Clinton for
helping organize demonstrations by Americans in London against
the Vietnam War. Clinton, who had earlier quoted Bush's
inaugural plea for Americans to put the divisions of Vietnam
behind them, compared Bush's criticism with the demagoguery of
Senator Joseph McCarthy -- whom Bush's father, Clinton noted,
had courageously opposed.
All in all, the first debate probably changed few minds; no
candidate came up with anything startlingly new. But Clinton at
least matched Bush in presidential stature, and for a
challenger, that almost by definition constitutes victory. Bush
is left with an extremely daunting task: no winner has ever come
back from being this far behind this close to an election.