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<title>
Mar. 12, 1990: Lashed By The Flags Of Freedom
</title>
<history>
TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1990
Mar. 12, 1990 Soviet Disunion
</history>
<article>
<source>Time Magazine</source>
<hdr>
SPECIAL SECTION: THE SOVIET EMPIRE, Page 26
Lashed By the Flags of Freedom
</hdr>
<body>
<p>Once a gray monolith, the Soviet Union is collapsing into a
clamor of independent-minded republics and ethnic groups. What
Gorbachev does to save the empire will affect not only his
country but the world
</p>
<p>By Bruce W. Nelan
</p>
<p> His face flushed with anger, Mikhail Gorbachev sat stiffly
in the Kremlin's Hall of Meetings as the Supreme Soviet
thundered through its most tumultuous session yet. For hours
last week, speaker after speaker denounced the Soviet leader's
request for sweeping new executive powers. Without using those
precise words, they accused him of edging back toward Stalinism,
of reaching for dictatorial rule. Scowling down from the
tribunal at the offending delegates behind rows of desks, he
leaned toward the microphone and pointed an accusing finger.
</p>
<p> "Calm down, calm down, calm down," he ordered. Those who
opposed his plan, he said, were "trying to sow mistrust." This
was no time for "cheap demagoguery." He had contemplated not
running in the next presidential election, he said, but decided
that to withdraw now would be cowardly. The national interest
demanded "quick action on this matter." The chastened
legislators listened well: they voted 347-24 to pass the bill
and send it on to the Congress of People's Deputies for final
approval.
</p>
<p> Three days earlier, in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius,
a meeting of some of Gorbachev's much more determined opponents
had added special urgency to his demand for expanded authority.
As results of local elections flowed into the headquarters of
Sajudis, the Lithuanian popular front, the architects of the
independence movement gathered to take stock. The election for
the republic's parliament had amounted to a referendum on
secession from the Soviet Union. Backing a candidate in each
district, Sajudis captured 72 of the 90 seats decided. "If this
isn't a landslide, what is?" asked Algimantas Cekuolis, a
Communist Party member endorsed by Sajudis. Predicted Virgilijus
Cepaitis, secretary of the popular front: "This means we will
have independence in the spring or summer."
</p>
<p> Lenin once referred to the vast, polyglot Russian Empire of
the Czars as a "prison of nations." Most of those captive
nations, set loose briefly by the Bolshevik Revolution and the
aftermath of World War I, were reconquered by the Red Army and
reforged into the modern Soviet Empire: 15 ethnically diverse
republics spreading almost 7,000 miles from the Polish border
to the Sea of Japan.
</p>
<p> This immense landmass, so long made immutable and monolithic
by rule from the Kremlin, is now quaking under the impact of
Gorbachev's reforms. The Soviet republics are beginning to snap
the political and economic bonds linking them to the once
all-powerful center in Moscow. With the Baltic states of
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in the vanguard, some of the
imprisoned peoples are battering the outside walls and intend
to leap to freedom. It now seems certain that the center cannot
hold onto all 15 republics. What was unthinkable only a few
months ago has now become reality: the largest country in the
world is on the brink of shrinking. Politics in the U.S.S.R.
has turned into a race between the republics trying to break out
and Gorbachev with his determination to build new fences and
structures to keep them in.
</p>
<p> The diminution of the colossus of the East can only ease the
minds of the nations of Eastern Europe that are slipping out of
its political grip and those of Western Europe that have
fearfully armed against it since the end of World War II. Amid
the rejoicing, however, some cautionary notes are in order. A
fragmenting giant with an immense nuclear arsenal must be
carefully watched for signs of instability. That would be
particularly true if the U.S.S.R. unraveled to a point at which
a Russian chauvinist republic might control it. Such concerns
are real, if premature. As William Webster, the director of the
CIA, testified in Washington last week, it is possible that
Gorbachev's enemies could one day try to oust him. But for now,
"those demanding an acceleration of reform still have the upper
hand."
</p>
<p> The epicenter of the Soviet secessionist quake is in the
Baltic states, which enjoyed 20 years of independence before
being re-annexed by the Soviet Union in 1940 under a cynical
deal between Stalin and Hitler. As a result, says Sajudis
president Vytautas Landsbergis, Lithuania "is not seeking to
establish independence, but working to restore it." Visiting the
republic in January, Gorbachev tried to apply the brakes with
an offer to create a new Soviet federation with increased
autonomy for all republics. While every republic had a
constitutional right to leave the Union, he said, a law on
secession procedures first had to be passed in Moscow. Give
autonomy a chance, he urged, pointing out, "You have never lived
in a federation."
</p>
<p> Lithuanian leaders denounced Gorbachev's arguments as
"trickery" and pressed ahead. The republic's Communist Party
organization had already declared itself independent and moved
closer to Sajudis in an attempt to build some credibility among
the voters who now would decide its future. Last month the local
parliament declared its 1940 accession to the U.S.S.R. "unlawful
and invalid."
</p>
<p> While the Baltics have a special claim to independence,
visible fault lines have appeared among several republics as
glasnost allowed the non-Russian peoples to speak their hidden
thoughts and demokratizatsiya opened the door to new
organizations and popular movements. National fronts were formed
in almost every part of the country to advance ethnic,
linguistic and cultural causes. Marx and Lenin had held that
life under socialism would submerge such differences in the sea
of workers' internationalist unity. As has so often been the
case, Marxist-Leninist theory was wrong.
</p>
<p> Unity was enforced and nationalist ambitions suppressed over
the decades with ruthless coercion by the KGB, supplemented by
privileges for the local party leaders who carried out Moscow's
directives. Under Gorbachev, the use of force inside the Soviet
Union was discouraged, and the party's hidebound patronage
system came under direct attack. By denouncing the government's
"command-administrative" methods, Gorbachev hoped to invigorate
the system and increase its efficiency.
</p>
<p> Gorbachev's missile, however, also hit the colonial
administration that maintained the Soviet empire. Glasnost
naturally entails talking about past injustices and that has led
to a new emphasis on ethnic grievances. Local party leaders,
feeling the heat from Moscow, discovered that they could keep
a grip on their jobs only by throwing in their lot with the
nationalist forces in their regions--actually representing
their constituents' interests in dealing with Moscow. In most
republics, it has now become good politics for Communist
officials to shake a fist at the Kremlin.
</p>
<p> Once Gorbachev's democratization had lifted the lid,
fiery-eyed nationalism leaped out. Azerbaijanis and Armenians
fell upon one another as if centuries of Muslim-Christian
warfare had never seen a truce. Moscow sent in peacekeeping
troops, and Azerbaijanis denounced the government, publicly
burning their red party cards. Soviet forces killed 20
demonstrators in Georgia. Fueled by anger over chronic
unemployment, housing shortages and catastrophic damage to the
environment, a spate of violent riots in Tadzhikistan, Kirghizia
and Kazakhstan turned anti-Russian. With less bloodshed but
equal vehemence, national movements in the Ukraine, Moldavia and
Belorussia are demanding an end to Russian domination. Since
December 1986, at least 408 people have died in clashes around
the empire. No fewer than 60 million Soviet citizens live
outside their home republics, and the ethnic upheavals have made
500,000 of them refugees.
</p>
<p> Moscow is visibly scrambling to find a way to contain this
spreading chaos without resorting to repression. Like every
Soviet leader since Lenin, Gorbachev faced a nationalities
problem; he simply did not know how to solve it. A special party
Central Committee meeting on the issue was repeatedly delayed.
When it finally convened last September, it was evident that the
postponement had done little good, and Kremlin planners
continued to underestimate the strength of rising nationalism.
The policy they put forth was a vague collection of homilies on
the inadmissibility of secession and the importance of economic
integration. "Our party," said Gorbachev, "is in favor of a
large and powerful federal state." While republics should aim
for "self-management," they should remember their duty to
develop "the whole country." The tendency toward independence,
he said, would "have exceedingly negative consequences for those
who embark on that path."
</p>
<p> The Baltic states dismissed Gorbachev's plea. Says Valery
Chalidze, an exiled dissident and editor: "I think [the Soviet
leaders] are very far from any clear ideas on what they want in
any new constitution." Peter Reddaway, senior Soviet specialist
at George Washington University, agrees: "I don't think
Gorbachev has any realistic design for a particular type of
federation. He is under so much pressure from so many problems
that trying to devise something stable is really hopeless."
</p>
<p> In the republican elections that began last December and
will continue in various parts of the country through June, the
clearest campaign theme to emerge is the public's rejection of
Communist Party candidates. Gorbachev hopes to save the Union
by decreasing the importance of the much hated party and
enhancing the powers of the central, duly elected government.
Like an admiral on a sinking warship, he is transferring his
flag to another vessel.
</p>
<p> Though Gorbachev remains head of the party, he is investing
the office of the President with precisely those powers that he
hopes will allow him to control the centrifugal forces pulling
the Soviet Union apart. As chairman of the Defense Council, he
is already commander in chief of the armed forces. But the new
law passed last week will formalize the President's control not
only of the military but also of Interior Ministry troops and
the KGB. He will appoint and preside over the Cabinet of
Ministers, declare emergencies and martial law, issue executive
orders, veto laws and dissolve the legislature. One of the
debaters who annoyed Gorbachev last week, Sergei Stankevich, a
liberal Moscow Deputy, said, "We can still feel the great
totalitarian tradition in this country." The President
responded, "It has nothing to do with Gorbachev's power. What
does Gorbachev have to do with it? Life has brought us to this
point, nothing else."
</p>
<p> His meaning was perfectly evident to delegates from the
rebellious Baltics. They refused to participate in the voting,
arguing that because they will soon be independent they should
not take part in creating new Soviet institutions. After the
session, Gorbachev invited six Baltic delegates to his office
to explain their position to him. He then told them he stood
firmly on his plan to create a new federation and would stick
to it in future negotiations with the Baltic states. Said
Estonian journalist Tarmu Tammerk: "This was the first time he
has admitted that Baltic independence is something we can
legitimately talk about."
</p>
<p> Gorbachev's reach for such extraordinary powers prompted
Lithuanian leaders to advance to March 4 runoff elections in 20
of the 51 undecided districts. That will enable them to convene
the new Lithuanian Supreme Soviet before Gorbachev is officially
invested with his new powers at a Congress of People's Deputies
session scheduled to begin on March 12. Reflecting on the
possible threat of martial law, Cekuolis said, "We want to keep
one jump ahead of Moscow." The republic's president and
Communist Party chief, Algirdas Brazauskas, called on Moscow to
begin independence negotiations "in the near future" to
establish "stable international relations and economic
cooperation between the U.S.S.R. and Lithuania."
</p>
<p> While the Lithuanian parliament has set up a committee to
draft a declaration of independence, some nationalists favor a
statement that Lithuania remains a sovereign state that has been
occupied by the Soviet Union for 50 years. This would establish
a firm legal basis for the independence decree and also allow
Lithuanians to claim the republic's property, including 95
factories that still obey orders from ministries in Moscow.
Before taking such a step, however, some Sajudis leaders would
prefer to hold a referendum, in which they estimate about 75%
would favor independence.
</p>
<p> Sajudis officials say they will nationalize those 95
factories at first, though they intend to sell them to
Lithuanian buyers later. "We'll simply do the same thing they
did in Russia 70 years ago," says Leimut Andrikene, a member of
the government's economic reform committee. Moscow argues for
a transition period during which accounts would be drawn up to
provide for compensation, including the bill for the factories.
But the Lithuanians are putting together a counterclaim, which
will include costs of property the Soviets seized in 1940. "They
have been lining their pockets with profits made on Lithuanian
soil for 50 years," says Andrikene.
</p>
<p> In nearby Estonia, the Supreme Soviet recently passed a
resolution calling for an immediate start on negotiations toward
re-establishing the republic's independence. But some Estonians
have come up with an ingenious path to secession. Two weeks ago,
they held elections for the old 499-member Estonian Congress,
which claims direct descent from the body that existed before
the Soviet annexation. Organizers claim that more than 500,000
people participated--almost 90% of the eligible voters.
Independence activists are now urging that elections for the
Estonian Supreme Soviet, scheduled for March 18, be canceled and
local authority handed over to the Congress.
</p>
<p> No matter what avenue the secessionists choose, Gorbachev
hopes to be ready for them with blocking legislation. As
promised, he is planning to introduce a bill in the Soviet
legislature on the right to withdraw from the Union. It will
require a republic to hold a referendum in which at least
three-quarters of adults cast ballots and two-thirds of the
votes cast favor secession. The People's Congress in Moscow
would then check the results and set a transition period of up
to five years to settle all "questions arising" and reach
"corresponding agreements and consents." Clearly, Moscow would
demand payment for what it considers state property and
compensation for those groups that want to remain inside the
Soviet Union.
</p>
<p> Gorbachev's plan seems to be to delay the process as long
as possible to give him time to design a federation that might
satisfy national sensibilities in most republics. The Baltics
almost certainly will proceed to independence, but as they
rightly point out, they are a special case. Their departure
would not mean they would start a stampede or that Gorbachev
would fall from power. After Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, most
speculation has centered on Moldavia, Georgia, the Ukraine and
the predominantly Muslim Central Asian republics. None of them
are rushing for the exit at the moment, and none seem likely to
break away in the near future.
</p>
<p> Secessionist sentiment is strong in the western Ukraine,
which was seized from Poland in 1939, but only moderate in the
rest of the republic. The Ukrainian national front, Rukh, claims
several hundred thousand members and widespread support, but
says it does not favor full independence. Rukh aims for a new
treaty of union in which the republics would be able to gain
more control over their own economies--an important point for
the grain-rich region. The Ukrainian Communist Party is still
rigidly conservative, and managed to limit Rukh's candidates to
only about a third of last weekend's races for Supreme Soviet
seats.
</p>
<p> Similarly, in Moldavia the Popular Front, which claims a
million supporters, demands that the term Soviet Socialist be
dropped from the republic's name, but has not put separation on
the agenda. It calls for "sovereignty," presumably inside a new
Soviet federation. With neighboring Romania in turmoil and
elections there set for May, talk of unification with the
Bucharest government has been replaced by a wait-and-see
attitude.
</p>
<p> Georgia, once a kingdom and still fiercely nationalistic,
might follow the Baltics out of the Union. Its newly revived
Georgian Social Democratic Party has announced that it will
enter candidates in the March 25 elections for the Supreme
Soviet. In spite of the ethnic feuding and anti-Russian feeling
in the Central Asian republics, however, none of them have
mounted a significant independence movement. On balance, they
receive more economic support from Moscow than they contribute
to the Union. Their real aim is increased state investment, and
they are worried that the center will order them to operate
self-sufficiently. In Uzbekistan, for example, says
Carnegie-Mellon University Professor Nancy Lubin, "the Popular
Front wants to answer the needs of its own people first, and it
wants Moscow's help to do it."
</p>
<p> Economics cannot be separated from politics, least of all
in the Soviet Union, and in those terms the republic with most
of the cards is Russia, officially called the Russian Soviet
Federative Socialist Republic. With just over half the Soviet
population, the R.S.F.S.R. produces 63% of the country's
electricity, 91% of its oil, 75% of its natural gas, 55% of its
coal, 58% of its steel, 50% of its meat, 48% of its wheat, 85%
of its paper and 60% of its cement. Its treasury subsidizes
inefficient industries in all the republics. Siberia supplies
3.5 times more raw materials than the rest of the country, and
most of those are then shipped at below-market prices to other
republics. The Soviet domestic price for oil, for example, is
less than half the world price. Encountering world-market prices
will be a rude awakening for the Balts, who have few significant
natural resources. That prospect is not likely to deter such
ardent nationalists, but it could have a chilling effect on some
of the other republics.
</p>
<p> If Gorbachev succeeds in holding most of the country
together for a while, he still faces the task of designing a
workable new relationship. The lackluster party platform on
nationalities and federation that was approved at last month's
Central Committee meeting will be presented this summer to the
28th Party Congress. It calls for a federation of "free and
equal republics, voluntarily delegating part of their rights to
the Union in order to attain common goals." The wording is vague
enough to suggest everything from an acceptance of separate
republican flags to noncommunist governments. Foreign Minister
Eduard Shevardnadze, a Georgian, put it more clearly last month
when he said, "If we want to preserve our commonwealth of
fraternal peoples, then we must reconstitute it as a treaty
union of genuinely sovereign states."
</p>
<p> If that is what the Kremlin means, it will have to say so.
Thus far, its plan talks of "economic independence" for the
republics, but also insists on "the center operating at the
macro level." Does this imply a federation, with a central
government? A confederation, with no central authority? An
economic community? Gorbachev will have to decide whether he
favors revising the present Union through legislation or
dismantling the whole Soviet structure by writing a new
constitution. He has taken for himself the chairmanship of the
congress's Constitutional Commission and set a one-year deadline
for drafting a new document. He told the Central Committee last
month that the sooner decisions are made to define "the
competence of the Union and that of republics," the sooner
everyone will see "the enormous advantages of the new
federation."
</p>
<p> Does he have a year? Paul Goble, deputy director of research
at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, argues that if Gorbachev
still intends to follow the path of perestroika and
demokratizatsiya, he will have to allow the Baltics to break
away by Christmas and possibly Moldavia not long thereafter.
Some experts, such as Francois Heisbourg, director of the
London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies,
believe Gorbachev will use military force as a last resort to
hold things together. Western intelligence officers, however,
say the army has intervened very reluctantly in ethnic conflicts
in the Caucasus and Central Asia and will not do so
indefinitely.
</p>
<p> Russians do not indicate that they are determined to hold
on to the empire at all costs. Indeed, the costs of the empire,
rather than its glory, seem uppermost in their minds. Both
Gorbachev and Shevardnadze have assured President Bush that
Moscow will not use force against the Baltic states. A senior
Soviet diplomat says of the Baltics, "Of course they can choose
independence. But the laws have to be observed, and they must
keep in mind that they will have to pay a heavy economic price."
In Paris last month, Gorbachev's adviser Andrei Grachev said if
Lithuanians cannot be convinced that it is in their interest to
remain in a new federation, "they make the decision, and no one
can prevent them from fulfilling it." Says the Carnegie
Endowment's Dimitri Simes: "During the Civil War, there were
strong imperial patriots who made keeping the country together
their highest priority. Now I do not see any strong constituency
for maintaining the empire with blood and violence."
</p>
<p> Thus it is possible that the Baltic leaders racing so
anxiously to independence are hurrying unnecessarily. Gorbachev
could have entirely different crackdowns in mind as he gathers
in his new powers to declare emergencies and maintains them "to
defend the interests and security of the U.S.S.R." It is the
decay of the center rather than the demands of the periphery
that is most threatening to his reforms. His biggest immediate
problem is likely to be the millions of Soviet citizens who are
sick of communism, angry at the government, in despair at their
living conditions--and have no plans to leave the country.
</p>
<p> But there is also no doubt that at some point soon--a few
months from now, perhaps a year, who can say for sure?--the
world's largest country will begin to contract. As future
historians contemplate the Soviet Empire of the 20th century,
they may wonder not why it collapsed but how it lasted so long.
</p>
<p>-- Reported by Paul Hofheinz/Vilnius, John Kohan/
Moscow and J.F.O. McAllister/Washington
</p>
<p>THE 15 REPUBLICS OF THE SOVIET UNION:
</p>
<p>[The U.S.S.R. is the largest country in the world with an area
of 8.6 million sq. mi. It covers one-sixth of the earth's land
and extends over eleven time zones.]
</p>
<p> ARMENIA
</p>
<p> Established as a separate republic: 1936. Capital: Yerevan.
</p>
<p> Population: 3.3 million; 90% Armenian, 5% Azerbaijanis, 2%
Russians, 2% Kurds.
</p>
<p> Converted to Christianity in 301 and incorporated into the
Russian empire in 1828, the Armenians are embroiled in a blood
feud with their neighbors in mainly Muslim Azerbaijan. Violence
broke out in 1988 when the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh
voted to secede from Azerbaijan. Since last summer Azerbaijanis
have blockaded Armenia's major rail links, devastating the
local economy. Fighting still erupts sporadically along their
common border. Surrounded by hostility and fearful of its
enemies in Turkey, Armenia looks to Moscow for protection;
theus, few of its nationalist organizations seek independence.
</p>
<p> AZERBAIJAN
</p>
<p> Established as a separate republic: 1936. Capital: Baku.
</p>
<p> Population: 7.0 million; 78% Azerbaijanis, 8% Armenians, 8%
Russians.
</p>
<p> Azerbaijani nationalists have become secessionist and
expansionist, dreaming of a greater state to include ethnic kin
in Iran. Gorbachev is worried that Islamic fundamentalism will
rise among Shi`ite Azerbaijanis, but Tehran seems equally
nervous about their intentions. In January rioters tore down
barriers along hundreds of miles of the border with Iran.
Anti-Armenian progoms in Baku and a probable takeover by the
unofficial Azerbaijan Popular Front forced Moscow to intervene.
Some 17,000 troops have restored order but increased anti-Soviet
feelings. All Armenians have departed, and many Russians are
fleeing the republic.
</p>
<p> BELORUSSIA
</p>
<p> Established as a separate republic: 1922. Capital: Minsk.
</p>
<p> Population: 10.2 million; 79% Belorussian, 12% Russian, 4%
Poles, 2% Ukrainians.
</p>
<p> This Slavic republic's Communist Party is under heavy
criticism from a 100,000 member popular front, Adradzhen`ne
(Renewal). In its manifesto in December the group charged, "Our
status is that of a semicolony that supplies the center." The
group denounces Moscow's cover-up of the 1987 Chernobyl nuclear
accident and its slow cleanup and repair of the widespread
ecological damage. Adradzhen`ne also demands the right to hold
private property and the abolition of the Communist monopoly on
political power. In elections last year, the front's campaigners
helped defeat several party bosses.
</p>
<p> ESTONIA
</p>
<p> Established as a separate republic: 1940. Capital: Tallinn.
</p>
<p> Population: 1.6 million; 65% Estonians, 28% Russians, 3%
Ukrainians, 2% Belorussians.
</p>
<p> Estonians are already creating their own monetary and
economic-planning systems. Russian residents have mounted
protest strikes, but last month the republic's legislature
called for talks with Moscow on the "restoration" of Estonia's
independence. The originial Popular Front, which began the drive
toward independence, is losing ground to the year-old Citizens'
Committee, which aims to recreate the old interwar republic and
is inviting overseas emigrants to return. Local elections March
18 will bring more separatists to power and increase
secessionist pressure.
</p>
<p> GEORGIA
</p>
<p> Established as a separate republic: 1936. Capital: Tbilisi.
</p>
<p> Population: 5.4 million; 69% Georgians, 9% Armenians, 7%
Russians, 5% Azerbaijanis, 3% Ossetians, 2% Abkhazians.
</p>
<p> A proud and ancient Christian people, Georgians were boldly
nationalistic ever under Khrushchev. They have supported the
Baltics in demanding the right to secede. Opposition to the
government is divided among a dozen groups organzied along
ethnic and generational lines. Interethnic fighting is frequent.
Abkhazians and Ossetians complain of repression by Georgian
nationalists. A year ago Soviet troops killed 20 demonstrators
in Tbilisi, and relations with Moscow remain tense. Georgia will
not be the first republic to leave the Soviet Union, but it
could follow others.
</p>
<p> KAZAKHSTAN
</p>
<p> Established as separate republic: 1936. Capital: Alma-Ata.
</p>
<p> Population: 16.6 million; 41% Russians, 36% Kazakhs, 6%
Ukrainians, 2% Tatars.
</p>
<p> A coalition of groups, including Adilet (Justice) and
several environmental associations, make up the fledgling
national movement. They played a large role in persuading Moscow
to suspend nuclear- weapons tests at Semipalatinsk. Adilet
emerged from an organization dedicated to the rehabilitation of
Stalin's victims. It was the first republic swept by ethnic
violence after Gorbachev began his reforms; anti-Russian riots
in Alma-Ata in 1986 claimed at least three lives. Last summer
gangs of youths attakced migrant workers from the Caucasus.
</p>
<p> KIRGHIZIA
</p>
<p> Established as a separate republic: 1936. Capital: Frunze.
</p>
<p> Population: 4.3 million; 48% Kirghiz, 26% Russians, 12%
Uzbeks, 3% Ukrainians, 2% Tatars.
</p>
<p> The burgeoning popular movement Ashar has been pressing for
increased economic autonomy, but reforms have not taken hold.
The local Communist Party organization is conservative,
rejecting rapid change and striving to keep Ashar from
developing into a full-blown national movement. Familiar
complaints of a housing shortage and unemployment are adding
recruits to the front. In recent weeks protests have turned into
riots in the capital, Frunze. Last July Kirghiz and Tadzhik
villagers battled on their border over land and water rights,
leaving one dead. The local militia had to be called out to keep
the peace.
</p>
<p> LATVIA
</p>
<p> Established as a separate republic: 1940. Capital: Riga.
</p>
<p> Population: 2.7 million; 54% Latvians, 33% Russians, 5%
Belorussians, 3% Ukrainians, 3% Poles.
</p>
<p> In spite of a very large Russian minority, Latvia has moved
almost as fast as the other Baltic states in seeking to secede.
The Latvian Popular Front was the first to call for full
independence. The republic's Supreme Soviet joined in that
demand last month by a 177-to-48 vote. It has also deleted
Article Six, which gave the Communist Party a political
monopoly, from its constitution. In recent local elections about
75% of the more than 14,000 seats at stake went to
pro-independence candidates. The Latvian Communist Party has not
yet cut its ties with Moscow but may do so in the near future.
</p>
<p> LITHUANIA
</p>
<p> Established as a separate republic: 1940. Capital: Vilnius.
</p>
<p> Population: 3.7 million; 80% Lithuanians, 9% Russians, 8%
Poles, 2% Belorussians.
</p>
<p> The leader of the Baltic drive for independence, Lithuania
has ignored pleas from Gorbachev to slow its pace. With 80% of
its population Lithuanian, it is the most ethnically homogeneous
of the Baltics. Its Communist Party has already split from
Moscow headquarters and is cooperating with Sajudis, the
nationalist movement. As a result, party support in the polls
has risen from 16% to 73%. Encouraged by Moscow, some Russians
living in the republic have formed an anti-independence group
called Interfront, and ethnic Poles are also displaying anxiety.
After major gains in local elections, the separatist majority
is expected to begin formal action toward sucession this year.
</p>
<p> MOLDAVIA
</p>
<p> Established as a separate republic: 1940. Capital: Kishinev.
</p>
<p> Population: 4.3 million; 64% Moldavians, 14% Ukrainians, 13%
Russians, 4% Gagauzi, 2% Jews.
</p>
<p> Most of this republic was formerly part of Romania, and it
has been inching back toward Bucharest. A new law makes
Moldavian the official language. Originally a cultural group,
the Moldavian Popular Front has evolved into a nationalist
movement that eventually is expected to favor unification with
Romania. Demonstrators disrupted anniversary celebrations last
Nov. 7, and many were arrested. The crackdown led to more
protests, and the Communist Party leadership in Kishinev was
replaced. Resident Russians have countered by forming their own
organization, Interdvezheniye, which opposes Moldavian demands
for sucession.
</p>
<p> RUSSIAN S.F.S.R.
</p>
<p> Established as a separate republic: 1922. Capital: Moscow.
</p>
<p> Population: 147 million; 83% Russians, 4% Tatars, 3%
Ukrainians.
</p>
<p> Traditionally pessimistic, Great Russians were slow to take
Gorbachev's glasnost seriously. Now, galvanized by anti-Russian
campaigns in the Baltics and Moldavia, they are organizing
politically. Popular outrage at corruption has forced out the
Communist Party committees in several cities. Siberian
environmentalists accuse Moscow of ignoring their needs while
exploiting their lands. Some new Russian groups are democratic,
but others are retrograde: the nationalistic Pamyat is openly
anti-Semitic; and the United Workers' Front opposes
market-oriented reforms.
</p>
<p> TADZHIKISTAN
</p>
<p> Established as a separate republic: 1929. Capital: Dushanbe.
</p>
<p> Population: 5.1 million; 59% Tadzhiks, 23% Uzbeks, 10%
Russians.
</p>
<p> The smallest of the Central Asian republics, Tadzhikistan
was also the quietest until last month's riots in Dushanbe,
triggered by rumors that Armenian refugees from Azerbaijan would
receive preferential treatment in housing. Russians were
attacked on the streets, and Moscow claimed Muslim gangs were
bringing arms across the border from Afghanistan. The nascent
opposition group Rastakhiz (Renaissance) has protested the
number of Communist officials nominated to run in local
elections. Discontent is being fueled by chronic unemployment
and shortages.
</p>
<p> TURKMENISTAN
</p>
<p> Established as a separate republic: 1925. Capital:
Ashkhabad.
</p>
<p> Population: 3.5 million; 68% Turkmen, 13% Russians, 9%
Uzbeks, 3% Kazakhs.
</p>
<p> This is the Soviet Union's calmest republic. No national
movement has arisen, and democratization has taken only
tentative steps. In December the local supreme soviet was
offered a choice of three candidates for prime minister, and the
following month the party allowed more than one official to run
for the post of agriculture secretary. Some in Ashkhabad have
suggested recalling the republic's entire parliamentary
delegation from Moscow because of its passivity.
</p>
<p> UKRAINE
</p>
<p> Established as a separate republic: 1922. Capital: Kiev.
</p>
<p> Population: 51.7 million; 74% Ukrainians, 21% Russians, 1%
Jews.
</p>
<p> Nationalist opposition in this largest non-Russian republic
is led by Rukh, a coalition of Communists and non-Communists
organized in September. The group, which claims several hundred
thousand members, is fighting for economic autonomy, political
pluralism and more freedom to use the Ukrainian language. In
late January Rukh organized a human chain 311 miles long from
Kiev to Lvov, testifying to the strength of the discontented.
Demonstrations calling for the resignation of party officials
have been mounted in several cities. Much resentment centers on
Moscow's mishandling of the 1987 Chernobyl nuclear disaster. So
far, the opposition has not raised the banner of independence.
</p>
<p> UZBEKISTAN
</p>
<p> Established as a separate republic: 1925. Capital: Tashkent.
</p>
<p> Population: 19.9 million; 69% Uzbeks, 11% Russians, 4%
Tatars, 4% Kazakhs, 4% Tadzhiks.
</p>
<p> The main nationalist movement, Birlik (Unity), claims up to
half a million members. Its causes are the protection of the
environment, the Uzbek language and culture, and Muslim
religious freedom. A special concern has been the pollution
caused in cotton-growing areas by pesticides and overfarming
ordered by Moscow. Corruption is a tradition: last year a former
prime minister was sentenced to nine years in a labor camp for
bribery and a president of the republic was fired for similar
offenses. Conflict in the republic is mainly ethnic; last June
Uzbeki attacks on the relatively more prosperous Meskhetian
Turks resulted in 99 deaths.
</p>
<p>MOSAIC OF PEOPLES
</p>
<p> Of a population of 289 million, 12 ethnic groups account
for 89%:
</p>
<qt>
<l>Russians 51%</l>
<l>Ukrainians 15%</l>
<l>Uzbeks 6%</l>
<l>Belorussians 4%</l>
<l>Kazakhs 3%</l>
<l>Azerbaijanis 2%</l>
<l>Tatars 2%</l>
<l>Armenians 2%</l>
<l>Tadzhiks 1%</l>
<l>Georgians 1%</l>
<l>Moldavians 1%</l>
<l>Lithuanians 1%</l>
</qt>
<p> Of the remaining 11%, no group is greater than 1% of the
total:
</p>
<p> Turkmen, Kirghiz, Germans, Chuvashes, Latvians, Bashkirs,
Jews, Mordvins, Poles, Estonians, Chechens, Udmurts, Maris,
Avars, Ossetians, Komis, Komi-Permiaks, Koreans, Karakalpaks,
Buryats, Kabardins, Yakuts, Bulgarians, Darghins, Greeks,
Kumyks, Uighurs, Gypsies, Ingush, Turks, Tuvins, Gagauzi,
Kalmucks, Hungarians, Karachai, Kurds, Romanians, Karelians,
Adygei, Lakhs, Abkhazians, Tabasarans, Balkars, Khalkhas, Nogai,
Altaics, Tungans, Finns, Circassians, Iranians, Abazi, Tats,
Baluchis, Assyrians, Talyshins, Rutals, Tsakhurs, Aguls, Shors,
Czechs, Veps, Arabs, Chinese, Slovaks, Afghans, Udins,
Khalkha-Monoglians, Albanians, Serbs, Karaim, Krymchaks,
Croatians, Izhor.
</p>
<p>PRODUCTION LINE: [% from each republic]
</p>
<qt>
<l>BEEF--48% Russian S.F.S.R., 24% Ukraine,</l>
<l>8% Kazakhstan, 6% Belorussia.</l>
</qt>
<p> COAL--55% Russian S.F.S.R., 25% Ukraine, 19% Kazakhstan.
</p>
<p> CORN--56% Ukraine, 26% Russian S.F.S.R., 5% Moldavia.
</p>
<qt>
<l>COTTON--60% Uzbekistan, 16% Turkmenistan,</l>
<l>11% Tadzhikistan, 9% Azerbaijan;</l>
<l>4% Kazakhstan.</l>
</qt>
<qt>
<l>GAS--75% Russian S.F.S.R., 12% Turkmenistan,</l>
<l>6% Uzbekistan, 5% Ukraine.</l>
</qt>
<qt>
<l>MOTORS--32% Ukraine, 23% Russian S.F.S.R.,</l>
<l>13% Belorussia, 11% Armenia.</l>
</qt>
<qt>
<l>POULTRY--55% Russian S.F.S.R., 22% Ukraine,</l>
<l>6% Kazakhstan, 4% Belorussia.</l>
</qt>
<qt>
<l>REFRIGERATORS--57% Russian S.F.S.R., 12% Ukraine,</l>
<l>11% Belorussia, 6% Azerbaijan,</l>
<l>6% Lithuania.</l>
</qt>
<qt>
<l>TELEVISIONS--46% Russian S.F.S.R., 34% Ukraine,</l>
<l>12% Belorussia, 7% Lithuania.</l>
</qt>
<p> WHEAT--48% Russian S.F.S.R., 25% Ukraine, 21% Kazakhstan.
</p>
</body>
</article>
</text>