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M9610706.TXT
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1996-01-30
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Document 0706
DOCN M9610706
TI Is the human immunodeficiency virus-related Kaposi's sarcoma epidemic
coming to an end? Insights from the Tricontinental Seroconverter Study.
DT 9601
AU Veugelers PJ; Strathdee SA; Moss AR; Page KA; Tindall B; Schechter MT;
Coutinho RA; van Griensven GJ; Municpal Health Service, Department of
Public Health, Amsterdam,; The Netherlands.
SO Epidemiology. 1995 Jul;6(4):382-6. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE
MED/96039983
AB A decline in the proportion of Kaposi's sarcoma among AIDS cases since
the 1980s has been attributed to changes in sexual behavior among
homosexual men and a decreasing exposure to a hypothesized Kaposi's
sarcoma cofactor. Recent studies have shown that the incidence rate of
Kaposi's sarcoma has remained relatively stable, which seems to argue
against the hypothesis of a declining exposure to the putative cofactor.
To examine this paradox, we evaluated the incidence of Kaposi's sarcoma,
using Cox proportional hazard analyses, and performed a simulation to
compare incidences of different AIDS outcomes among 407 homosexual men
with documented dates of seroconversion. Our data show that men who
seroconverted early in the epidemic did not progress faster to Kaposi's
sarcoma than men who seroconverted more recently. A lower incidence rate
of Kaposi's sarcoma would be expected among the latter group if exposure
to the hypothesized cofactor is decreasing over time. The percentage of
Kaposi's sarcoma among incident AIDS cases decreased over the years
following seroconversion, but not over calendar time. This study
demonstrates that the decline in the proportion of Kaposi's sarcoma
among AIDS cases should not be interpreted as a decline in the incidence
of Kaposi's sarcoma and that there is no evidence that a hypothesized
Kaposi's sarcoma cofactor is declining over calendar time.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*COMPLICATIONS/EPIDEMIOLOGY Age of
Onset Cohort Studies Homosexuality, Male Human HIV
Seropositivity/*EPIDEMIOLOGY Incidence Male Proportional Hazards
Models Prospective Studies Sarcoma, Kaposi's/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/ETIOLOGY
Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S. JOURNAL ARTICLE
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).